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Annual Agricultural Outlook Meeting
01-10-2011
Every year Ohio State Extension hosts Agricultural Outlook Meetings across the state. OSU Extension and First Citizens National Bank will be hosting one in Wyandot County on March 1, 2011, 6:00 PM in the Masters Building at the Wyandot County Fairgrounds. Reservation can be made by contacting OSU Extension at 419-294-4931 on Monday, Tuesday or Thursday. Cost will be $10.00 and includes supper.
One of the speakers at our Outlook Meeting will be Barry Ward Leader, Production Business Management Ohio State University Extension Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics. He has summarized some of his current predictions on crop profitability and input prices and posted them at http://ohioagmanager.osu.edu. I have summarized some of the more important parts in this article.
Crop profitability prospects for 2011 are positive for the three major row crops in Ohio. Input costs have increased from last year but increases in commodity futures crop prices for the 2011 crop year have increased substantially as well. Enterprise budget projections show positive returns for corn, soybeans and wheat in 2011. These budgets are available online at: http://aede.osu.edu/Programs/FarmManagement/Budgets/index.htm.
Higher commodity prices and higher costs lead us to a riskier production year as the cash investment in an acre of corn will top $350 and in some production scenarios be closer to $400 per acre. The cash investment in an acre of soybeans will be in the $200 range.
Fertilizer continues to be the most volatile of the crop input costs and cost management of this important input may be the difference in being a low cost or high cost producer in 2011. Fertilizer prices were relatively flat through July of 2010. Since August fertilizer prices have increased substantially. A number of factors have led to the rapid increase in these fertilizer prices. First, due to relatively low crop prices through mid-summer, fertilizer manufacturers were not producing at full capacity anticipating a flat global demand for fertilizer through the fall of 2010 and into the spring of 2011. This relatively empty pipeline together with an early harvest in the U.S. Corn belt and much higher prices for major row crops has led to the higher fertilizer prices that we are now experiencing. Higher prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have signaled the global marketplace to increase acreage (bringing marginal acres back into production) and increase fertilizer rates on all acres. Higher energy prices have also put upward pressure on all fertilizer prices due to the higher
mining, manufacturing and transportation costs.
For more detailed information either go to http://ohioagmanager.osu.edu or contact the Wyandot County OSU Extension office for a printed copy of the report.
Article by Chris Bruynis, Extension Educator
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